I got three questions/comments in today on the Fangraphs chat with Dave Cameron. First off, he mentioned in another question about how Gio Gonzalez was inferior to Trevor Cahill. So that inspired this question:
|
12:33
|
|
[Comment From David Wishinsky]
You’re Billy Beane who do you lock up long term first: Cahill or Barton? |
|
|
12:33
|
Dave Cameron:
Neither, but Barton between those two. I don’t trust pitchers, and I really don’t trust pitchers who don’t miss bats. |
I really respect Dave Cameron and was sort of surprised by his not being high on Barton in the least. When I asked the question I really thought that given how expensive pitching can become Cahill may be a good candidate for an extension but that Barton’s continued development made him someone to lock up too. But Cameron says neither. Interesting. Another person later in the chat then asked this question which Cameron replied to:
|
2:32
|
|
[Comment From Daniel]
If you were rebuilding a franchise, would you rather start with an 8-9 WAR 1B making $30M, or a 4-5 WAR 1B making the league minimum? |
|
|
12:33
|
Dave Cameron:
The latter, though the latter seems like a fictitious character. |
Clearly the first player is
Albert Pujols, but the second to me looked like none other than the “don’t lock them up”
Daric Barton. So I called him on it.
|
12:36
|
|
[Comment From David Wishinsky]
Wouldnt Daric Barton be Daniel’s “fictitious” first baseman? |
|
|
12:36
|
Dave Cameron:
I don’t see Barton as a true talent +4 to +5 win guy, no. |
So that led me to ask this:
|
12:39
|
|
[Comment From David Wishinsky]
So Barton’s 4.9 WAR last year was a fluke? |
|
|
12:39
|
Dave Cameron:
I don’t believe he’s a true talent +14 defender, so yes. |
Apparently another
Daric Barton fan came out of the woodwork to say this:
|
12:49
|
|
[Comment From Jeremy]
Do you see Barton having a breakout season? He was a good prospect who after a rough start to his career, led baseball in walks last season. He seems to show flashes of pop from time to time, I’m expecting a breakout season most people are overlooking. |
|
|
12:49
|
Dave Cameron:
You want a guy who had a +5 WAR season to now have a breakout? Seriously? You think he’s going to turn into Pujols? |
I agree that I don’t see Barton turning into Pujols. I don’t know what sort of breakout Jeremy was talking about, my guess is he meant will he start to show power but worded it in a way that that message was lost.
So there you have it Dave Cameron joins Jane Lee in doubting
Daric Barton. I am still a big believer. While a lot of his WAR was derived from his defensive performance, I think that what he brings with plate discipline is important to the A’s lineup. If it were me and I were
Billy Beane I’d lock up Barton.
The Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan 
I like Barton a lot, but I do agree that his defensive numbers from last year overstate how much value he brings with the glove. But, his plate discipline is excellent and given that the A’s have a strong starting staff and a pitchers park, investing in a guy like Barton isn’t crazy. If they could get a decent deal on extending him I certainly would, but I guess as always the question with the A’s is what else those dollars might get spent on. Its tough for me to imagine the A’s competing in the AL without a couple of decent power bats (these aren’t the 85 Cardinals after all) and money spent on Barton would take away from that possibility. Barton did a nice job of increasing his walk rate while hitting fewer flyballs, resulting in a little better performance on balls in play. I think I see him as a 3 – 3.5 WAR player going forward, so certainly worthy of investment but not a cornerstone at 1B.
I still am not sold on the need for power in Oakland’s lineup. I think the power numbers don’t matter if we can get a lot of good gap hitters. Our stadium just isn’t made for power (despite a long history of huge home run guys) and I think if we build a team around high OBP doubles guys, we can be just as successful. This isn’t to say everyone should hit 3 home runs, but if we had 15-25 home run guys which I think Barton is capable of (more towards the 15 admittedly) we’ll be fine. But, the flip side is that first baseman or poor fielding sluggers who can be stuck at first, are relatively cheap on the market right now. But I wish everyone could have Barton’s patience at the plate, I love that about him. It’ll be interesting to see what he does this year.
I haven’t been following Barton very long. But I was scouting him in one of my keeper leagues as someone I might trade for. And it seems like most scouts have him pegged as a guy who will get a lot of walks, hit for a lot higher average than he did last year, and be fair with the glove. I haven’t seen many estimates of him being a 30ish homer guy, so he doesn’t seem like a stereotypical 1b basher. He looks strong, and might mature into a power hitter if he didn’t play (say it with me one more time) in one of the worst homer parks in baseball.
His ability to walk and hit for average without a lot of power remind me of Keith Hernandez. But if he plays the kind of defense that Keith did, I would be very surprised.
Depending on the set up of the league Barton could be I presume valuable for very useless (his low HR and RBI totals). Yeah he won’t ever hit 30 home runs, and most of the ones he hit scrape the back of the outfield wall so he is far from a typical first baseman. But you know, I think he has so many other attributes that make it OK for him not be a true slugger like that. I for one am (clearly) a big fan.